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Texas PUC Staff File Updated Estimate Of ERCOT Capacity Used For Small Fish Swim Free Rule
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Staff of the Public Utility Commission of Texas have filed an updated estimate of installed generation capacity in ERCOT.
The amount of installed generation capacity is a factor in determining (1) the 20 percent limit on installed generation capacity established in PURA § 39.154 and (2) the 5 percent wholesale market power exemption established in P.U.C. Subst. R. 25.504(c).
For purposes of the 20% limit, the estimated total installed generation capacity is 136,423 MW (up from the 118,651 MW that Staff reported in a January 2024 estimate).
For purposes of the 5% exemption (small fish rule), the estimated total installed generation capacity is 98,702 MW (up from 88,179 MW).
Staff noted changes in the methodology to arrive at the estimates as including the following
As part of the changes that were approved as part of NPRR 1219, the ERCOT Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) Report now uses Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for wind and solar resources instead of peak average capacity contributions. For the purpose of calculating the installed generation capacity in ERCOT, Staff views the peak average capacity contribution methodology as better aligning with 16 TAC § 25.91(f), and ERCOT has provided updated percentages based on new operational data from the most recent summer peak:
The capacity credit for wind facilities located in counties in the Coastal Wind Region is now 55% of the nameplate capacity (decreased from 60% reported in 2024).
The capacity credit for wind facilities located in counties in the Panhandle Wind Region is now 28% of the nameplate capacity (decreased from 29% reported in 2024).
The capacity credit for Other wind facilities (not located in the Coastal or Panhandle Wind Regions) is 21% of the nameplate capacity (decreased from 22% reported in 2024).
The capacity credit for solar facilities is now 71% of nameplate capacity (decreased from 76% reported in 2024).
Project 39870
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March 31, 2025
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Copyright 2025 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
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