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ERCOT CDR Indicates Inadequate Reserve Margins By 2027 Due To Forecasted Large Loads
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ERCOT has posted its December 2024 CDR, which is the first to include, in the primary forecast, new forecasted loads reported by Transmission Service Providers for expected loads that do not have a signed interconnection agreement (mostly large loads) and which would otherwise not have been included in the CDR
The new CDR also includes various other changes in how load and resource capacity is valued or treated
The reserve margins as listed in the CDR are shown below both as (1) as prescribed in the protocols, and (2) when removing 50% of the TSP-forecasted load which lacks a signed IA and when including TEF generation that otherwise does not yet qualify as available capacity under the protocols
The summer and winter reserve margins from the CDR, based on peak load hour (not peak net load hour, which is also published in the full report), are as follows
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February 13, 2025
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Copyright 2025 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
Dec 2024 CDR
Summer
Protocols Less 50% TSP Load
Plus TEF
2025 18.9% 20.0%
2026 5.2% 12.9%
2027 -8.3% 2.6%
2028 -30.1% -14.5%
2029 -32.4% -16.5%
Winter
Protocols Less 50% TSP Load
Plus TEF
2025-26 23.7% 26.7%
2026-27 4.5% 13.4%
2027-28 -12.1% 0.5%
2028-29 -23.2% -5.4%
2029-30 -26.8% -8.5%
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