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ERCOT CDR Indicates 50% Reserve Margins; Summer Still Healthy 3 Years Out When New Load Considered
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ERCOT has posted its May 2024 CDR
In addition to providing reserve margins under its standard load forecast, ERCOT also listed reserve margins under load forecasts that include prospective customer Loads identified by TSPs that currently do not have a signed Interconnection Agreement. This new data was further broken out by contracted load only, and both contracted load and non-contracted load
The summer and winter reserve margins from the CDR are as follows, including reserve margins which result when non-contracted load is considered. If only new contracted load is considered, the winter reserve margins would be 22.4% for 2026/2027 and 14.1% for 2027/2028 (versus the lower numbers in the chart below which includes non-contracted loads)
Link to CDR
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Winter Healthy Under New Contracted Loads, Challenged By 2027-28 Winter If Non-Contracted Load Considered
May 24, 2024
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Copyright 2024 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com
May 2024 CDR
Summer
Reserve Margin Reserve Margin
(Standard Forecast) (with New Contracted
& Non-contracted Load)
2025 46.0% 33.9%
2026 58.2% 23.7%
2027 64.0% 12.8%
2028 56.5% -2.4%
2029 54.8% -4.3%
Winter
2025/2026 43.4% 26.7%
2026/2027 41.9% 7.8%
2027/2028 39.3% -6.7%
2028/2029 36.3% -18.4%
2029/2030 33.8% -21.6%
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