New ERCOT Summer SARA Report Forecasts Avoidance Of Load Shed Under Most Scenarios -- EnergyChoiceMatters.com

New ERCOT Summer SARA Report Forecasts Avoidance Of Load Shed Under Most Scenarios

Latest CDR Report Also Posted

May 3, 2023

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Copyright 2010-21 EnergyChoiceMatters.com
Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

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ERCOT posted its May 2023 Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region and its Summer 2023-2024 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) Report

The May 2023 CDR report shows the following reserve margins (Nov 2022 CDR data also shown)

Reserve Margin

         Nov         May
         2022        2023
2024:   39.9%       33.9%
2025:   44.3%       44.2%
2026:   42.4%       44.1%
2027:   40.1%       42.0%
2028:               41.0%

The forecasted peak demand for summer 2024 is 85,029MW, while the firm peak demand (which includes the impact of curtailable load programs) is 81,643 MW. The winter 2024-25 peak demand forecast is 71,547 MW and firm peak demand forecast is 68,835 MW.

"The peak demand forecast incorporates expected load increases during the seasonal peak demand hours due to the interconnection of Large Loads (such as crypto-mining facilities) to Transmission Service Provider networks. For this report, that forecast utilizes an assumption that LFLs are only consuming 10% of their total load. There are also Large Loads, totalling approximately 760 MW, that have been connected directly to co-located generation plants. For this CDR report, such co-located Large Loads are not netted against the generation capacities and are thus assumed to be fully curtailable if needed by ERCOT when reserve capacity is tight. This is an interim CDR planning assumption to be used until ERCOT implements a forecast methodology for addressing Large Loads in Reserve Margins. Note that this is different from the SARA which utilizes an interim short term forecast based on historical prices during tight grid conditions. ERCOT has also adopted the policy of not identifying the generating units with co-located Large Loads in the CDR and SARA until formal reporting rules have been adopted," the CDR states

"The Planning Reserve Margin for summer 2024 is forecasted to be 33.9%,representing a6.0 percentage point decrease relative to the 39.9% margin reported in the November 2022 CDR report. This decrease is due mainly to delays of planned projects that were previously expected to be in service by July 1, 2024. The Reserve Margin rises to 44.2% for summer 2025, largely reflecting solar capacity additions, much of which represents project delays from prior years. The 'Planned Resource Scenarios' tab provides smaller planned resource amounts and lower Reserve Margins based on more stringent eligibility criteria for including planned resources in the CDR," the CDR states

With respect to the summer SARA, ERCOT's report states, "Assuming that the ERCOT Region experiences typical summer grid conditions, ERCOT anticipates that there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve the system-wide forecasted peak load for the upcoming summer season, June -September 2023."

"The base summer peak load is 82,739 MW. This load amount is based on average weather conditions at the time of the summer peaks for years 2007 through 2021, and does not incorporate ERCOT's summer 2023 weather outlook," the SARA states

"Over 97,000 MW of summer-rated resource capacity is expected to be available for the summer peak load. This includes 688 MW of planned thermal resources and 372 MW of planned solar resources forecasted to be available by July 2023. The total resource amount also includes 3,544 MW of installed battery storage capacity, with 447 MW of the installed total assumed to be available for dispatch prior to the highest summer net load hours. (Net load is total load minus wind and solar generation.) This capacity estimate serves as a proxy for the amount expected during a tight reserve hour for the upcoming summer and is an interim availability assumption to be used until a formal capacity contribution method is adopted for future SARA reports," the SARA states

"Also noteworthy is a 568 MW coal unit that changed its operations from year-round to summer only. The total amount of capacity associated with units operating only during the summer now stands at 704 MW, which is the highest amount since summer 2016," the SARA states

ERCOT's SARA report indicates a risk of EEA1 (and not beyond EEA1) under three scenarios, including "Forecasted Peak Load /Typical Unplanned Outages /Low Wind and Solar", "Extreme Peak Load /Extreme Unplanned Outages /Typical Wind and Solar", and "High Peak Load /Extreme Unplanned Outages /Extreme Low Wind."

ERCOT's SARA report indicates a risk of load shed under the "High Peak Load /Extreme Unplanned Outages /Extreme Low Wind" scenario (deficit of 6,659 MW in terms of Capacity Available for Operating Reserves, Emergency Conditions)

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