Vistra (TXU Parent) Reports Residential Retail Customer Growth In Texas, Continued Strong Margins -- EnergyChoiceMatters.com

Vistra (TXU Parent) Reports Residential Retail Customer Growth In Texas, Continued Strong Margins

May 6, 2022

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Reporting by Paul Ring • ring@energychoicematters.com

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In reporting first quarter earnings today, Vistra Corp. said that it grew residential counts in Texas in the quarter and year over year

Vistra said that the Retail segment is "performing well" with, "positive [organic] customer count growth in Texas and continued strong margins"

Overall, Vistra's residential customer count was 2.711 million as of Q1 2022, versus 2.717 million as of Q4 2021, and 2.728 million a year ago. These totals reflect direct-to-consumer electric/gas residential counts excluding municipal-aggregation and international customers.

For the Retail segment, Vistra reported first quarter 2022 Adjusted EBITDA of $163 million, approximately $362 million higher than the first quarter 2021 negative Adjusted EBITDA of $(199) million, driven primarily by Winter Storm Uri impacts in first quarter of 2021, with some offset in first quarter 2022 by intra-year power cost seasonality (with expected offset in later months of 2022).

Overall, Vistra said that its quarterly earnings shape for 2022 changed based on Uri after-effect in Q1 and, "greater margin opportunity in remaining quarters."

"Stronger ERCOT retail counts and margins," as well as higher balance-of-year 2022 forwards and additional hedging, "lead to greater confidence in 2022 guidance," Vistra said

Specifically, Vistra reaffirmed "with increased confidence" its 2022 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges of $2,810 to $3,310 million and $2,070 to $2,570 million, respectively, which reflects an expected Adjusted EBITDA to Adjusted FCFbG conversion of ~76%, including the cash effect of ERCOT securitization of $544 million expected to be received in second quarter 2022.

Vistra cited an, "opportunity to capture material increase in Adj. EBITDA and Adj. FCF driven by the rise in forward curves in 2023+."

Retail volumes for the first quarter of 2022 were as follows by customer segment (in TWh):

Vistra Retail Volumes (TWh)
            Q1 2021   Q1 2022
Residential   7.5       7.8
Business     11.6      12.5
Muni Agg.     2.9       3.0

Total        21.9      23.3

For the first quarter of 2022, Retail sales volumes were 14.2 TWh in ERCOT and 9.1 TWh in the Northeast/Midwest

Available liquidity as of May 5, 2022 was ~$2.1 billion, Vistra said

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