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Migration Negatively Impacts PSEG Power Earnings by $5 Million

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October 28, 2010

Customer migration away from Basic Generation Service negatively impacted PSEG Power earnings by $5 million in the third quarter versus the year-ago period, parent PSEG reported yesterday.

Operating earnings at PSEG Power were $355 million for the third quarter of 2010, compared with operating earnings of $358 million a year ago.  Gains from increased generation due to favorable weather were offset by a nuclear outage, lower margins, and the aforementioned migration impact.

PSEG estimated that approximately 22% to 24% of the total load supplied through BGS migrated to other suppliers as of the end of September, but said that it does not have the final September data yet.  PSEG said that migration is approximately steady with the level at the end of the second quarter.

PSEG Power's forecast assumes further erosion in margin of $5 million due to migration in the fourth quarter which is consistent with the upper end of prior guidance of a $10-$20 million incremental negative impact from migration for the full year versus 2009 (e.g., on top of the $40 million negative impact from migration in 2009).  PSEG is now refining its forecast of the annual incremental negative impact from migration to be $20 million.

PSEG Power also said an incremental 5% of customer migration from BGS would reduce Power's earnings by about $7.6 million on an annualized basis at current market prices.  An additional loss of 15% of load would reduce Power's average hedged price in 2011 to $67 per MWh.  At the end of September, approximately 68% of Power's anticipated coal and nuclear generation for 2011 was hedged at an average price of $71 per MWh.

Gross margins at PSEG Power for the third quarter were lower at $57 per MWh compared with $64 per MWh during the third quarter of 2009 from lower prices and the higher use of coal generation due to the nuclear outage.

   
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